UNDP and partners support Greater Horn of Africa regional climate outlook for better preparedness

Aug 31, 2016

As countries in the Greater Horn of Africa deal with El Niño and prepare for La Niña, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) convened the Forty Third Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF43) on 30-31 May 2016 in Naivasha, Kenya with the support of the UN Development Programme, World Bank, USAID, UK MET and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR).

Hosted by the Government of the Republic of Kenya through the Kenya Meteorological Department, GHACOF 43 produced the consensus regional climate outlook for the June to September 2016 rainfall season over the GHA region.

The regional climate outlook indicates a likelihood of above normal rainfall over most of the northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA): including southern parts of Sudan; most of Eritrea, South Sudan and Djibouti; Northern part of Uganda; western Kenya; as well as western, central and northern Ethiopia. There is increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall over the coastal and western parts of the equatorial sector: including much of Uganda, northern coast of Tanzania, Kenyan coast and southern coast of Somalia. The rest of the GHA areas is going to be dry, including: the northern half of Sudan; eastern parts of Ethiopia; eastern parts of Kenya; almost all of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and much of Somalia; and southern parts of Uganda.

The representative to the Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, Mr. Elijah Bukachi, noted that local and month-to-month variations might occur as the June to September 2016 season progresses. “I am sure with the early warning that there is a likelihood of a La Niña phenomenon manifesting itself during the later part of the year and with the discussions on preparedness and response for the post El Niño impact, the representatives of the various sectors are better prepared on how to respond to the future extreme events,” He pointed out that the global climate centres will continue to provide the status of global climate updates, and that the IGAD Climate prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) will provide regular regional updates while the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will provide detailed national and sub-national updates. IGAD, UNDP and the World Bank organized a side event with Member States focusing on the coordination of preparedness, early action, and recovery from extreme climate events such as La Niña.

The GHA region comprises Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.

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